Winner
given by the polls, the outgoing president must face particular
concerns about the mobilization of voters in favor of black, Latino or
Catholic Strategy "microTargeting" of the Christian right.
Lauric Henneton is a lecturer at the University of Versailles-Saint-Quentin and recently published by Flammarion one religious history of the United States.
Mitt Romney may be the worst candidate of a major party in the long presidency of the United States: any of its predecessors, the Democratic side as a Republican, had had a bad public image for at least quarter of a century, according to a survey by the Pew Research Center.
Despite some efforts, it fails to impose a narrative that would make it humanly endearing it is considered remote, detached from reality (especially financial) means the American voter, and Mormonism is suspect in the eyes of portion of evangelical Protestants, though generally favorable to the "GOP".
To these are added handicaps already many turnovers (on abortion), concealments embarrassed (the health system he helped implement in Massachusetts), and gaffs, as the remarks made public recently about the now famous 47% of Americans consider it assisted and therefore lost to the cause of his party.
The consequence of this bundle of factors that Barack Obama is well positioned in a number of recent surveys carried out in "key states" (battleground states), where the election of November 6 will play: Florida and Ohio, decisive in 2000 and 2004, but also Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Virginia and North Carolina.
This series of polls favor Obama and the accumulation of blunders Republican side suggests that dynamic is starting to re-election of the incumbent president smoothly. National polls, however, remain tight, which may seem surprising, but does not mean much in an election that is not played at the national level, as in France.
Despite this favorable context, however, the Obama campaign team is facing six concerns.
1. Premature failure triumphalism, believing that the election is played, which would result in a double-release effort activists at the local level and a lower mobilization of American voters abstained easily. It is clear that the unprecedented mobilization of 2008 will not be matched, but beware demobilization too broad.
2. In 2008, the mobilization was particularly noticeable in the black electorate. Serious concerns hover for some time after the announcement by Obama to support gay marriage, criticized especially in black churches, who have called on their followers to abstain. Support for President large black evangelical figures like Al Sharpton, announced at a press conference on September 21, he will limit demobilization of black voters also believing that practicing?
3. The same problem arises with the Catholics, who, with a quarter of the electorate, are crucial. In addition to gay marriage, they are generally opposed to abortion, defended by Democrats (even if there is a pro-life Democrat minority).
Catholics for whom the ideal of social justice is more important than the right to look for abortion Democrats, who at the Charlotte Convention in early September, sent some strong signals to the electorate, despite the controversy - widely publicized, the reintroduction of God and Jerusalem in the program booed lay activists. Beyond Catholic voters, the Democratic Party is trying to shed its traditional image of hostility to religion, which is not unique to him attract independent voters still undecided.
4. Latinos, minority growth, traditionally Democrats even though their social conservatism sometimes pushes them to vote Republican, are the other major election issue. The real question this year is whether they will be able to vote at all, since a number of laws or provisions, not devoid of ulterior motives partisan, designed to remove the electoral lists or prevent them from there Register (required to present a valid photo ID, still rare in the United States, especially among minorities).
Latinos, and to a lesser extent black people could not vote on November 6 will be much less vote for the Democrats, especially in the key states of Nevada and Florida Hispanics, North Carolina and Virginia for blacks.
5. The teachers' strike in Chicago, which ended Sept. 19, is symptomatic of the limitations of the balance sheet of Barack Obama, the unions is a historic pillar of the Democratic Party. The reform of the health system, past the pain, was questioned at the state level.
Despite the spectacular death of Osama bin Laden, the situation in the Middle East is far from being peaceful and kindling recent Arab-Muslim world shows that despite the Cairo speech, anti-Americanism remains. The 112th Congress (2010-2012) will probably hold the sad record of less productive since 1947, mainly because of the fierce opposition of House of Representatives Republican majority since the crushing defeat of the Democrats in midterm elections in 2010. The disappointment of some could therefore add other triumphalism, mentioned above, as part of demobilization of voters in 2008.
6. Finally, under the leadership of Ralph Reed, one of the brains of the Christian Right, conservative evangelicals are putting in motion a campaign to mobilize a considerable extent, thanks to the strategy that allowed the microTargeting strategist Karl Rove to contribute decisively to the reelection yet theoretically complicated George W. Bush in 2004.
Less than two months of the election, the issue of mobilization arises in both camps. Surveys are currently favorable to the Democrats and the Republican candidate is not the most charismatic or the most skillful. However, among the possible causes of demobilization on the Democratic side and a more conservative jolt marked by hostility to Obama by the enthusiastic support for Romney, the American campaign in 2012 is far from over.
Do not forget, finally, win the presidential election is only half the battle: Democrats must also mobilize to increase their majority in the Senate and regain the House of Representatives, and hence the ability to pass laws. These elections, at least as important as the race to the White House, are unfairly under-publicized.
Lauric Henneton is a lecturer at the University of Versailles-Saint-Quentin and recently published by Flammarion one religious history of the United States.
Mitt Romney may be the worst candidate of a major party in the long presidency of the United States: any of its predecessors, the Democratic side as a Republican, had had a bad public image for at least quarter of a century, according to a survey by the Pew Research Center.
Despite some efforts, it fails to impose a narrative that would make it humanly endearing it is considered remote, detached from reality (especially financial) means the American voter, and Mormonism is suspect in the eyes of portion of evangelical Protestants, though generally favorable to the "GOP".
To these are added handicaps already many turnovers (on abortion), concealments embarrassed (the health system he helped implement in Massachusetts), and gaffs, as the remarks made public recently about the now famous 47% of Americans consider it assisted and therefore lost to the cause of his party.
The consequence of this bundle of factors that Barack Obama is well positioned in a number of recent surveys carried out in "key states" (battleground states), where the election of November 6 will play: Florida and Ohio, decisive in 2000 and 2004, but also Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Virginia and North Carolina.
This series of polls favor Obama and the accumulation of blunders Republican side suggests that dynamic is starting to re-election of the incumbent president smoothly. National polls, however, remain tight, which may seem surprising, but does not mean much in an election that is not played at the national level, as in France.
Despite this favorable context, however, the Obama campaign team is facing six concerns.
1. Premature failure triumphalism, believing that the election is played, which would result in a double-release effort activists at the local level and a lower mobilization of American voters abstained easily. It is clear that the unprecedented mobilization of 2008 will not be matched, but beware demobilization too broad.
2. In 2008, the mobilization was particularly noticeable in the black electorate. Serious concerns hover for some time after the announcement by Obama to support gay marriage, criticized especially in black churches, who have called on their followers to abstain. Support for President large black evangelical figures like Al Sharpton, announced at a press conference on September 21, he will limit demobilization of black voters also believing that practicing?
3. The same problem arises with the Catholics, who, with a quarter of the electorate, are crucial. In addition to gay marriage, they are generally opposed to abortion, defended by Democrats (even if there is a pro-life Democrat minority).
Catholics for whom the ideal of social justice is more important than the right to look for abortion Democrats, who at the Charlotte Convention in early September, sent some strong signals to the electorate, despite the controversy - widely publicized, the reintroduction of God and Jerusalem in the program booed lay activists. Beyond Catholic voters, the Democratic Party is trying to shed its traditional image of hostility to religion, which is not unique to him attract independent voters still undecided.
4. Latinos, minority growth, traditionally Democrats even though their social conservatism sometimes pushes them to vote Republican, are the other major election issue. The real question this year is whether they will be able to vote at all, since a number of laws or provisions, not devoid of ulterior motives partisan, designed to remove the electoral lists or prevent them from there Register (required to present a valid photo ID, still rare in the United States, especially among minorities).
Latinos, and to a lesser extent black people could not vote on November 6 will be much less vote for the Democrats, especially in the key states of Nevada and Florida Hispanics, North Carolina and Virginia for blacks.
5. The teachers' strike in Chicago, which ended Sept. 19, is symptomatic of the limitations of the balance sheet of Barack Obama, the unions is a historic pillar of the Democratic Party. The reform of the health system, past the pain, was questioned at the state level.
Despite the spectacular death of Osama bin Laden, the situation in the Middle East is far from being peaceful and kindling recent Arab-Muslim world shows that despite the Cairo speech, anti-Americanism remains. The 112th Congress (2010-2012) will probably hold the sad record of less productive since 1947, mainly because of the fierce opposition of House of Representatives Republican majority since the crushing defeat of the Democrats in midterm elections in 2010. The disappointment of some could therefore add other triumphalism, mentioned above, as part of demobilization of voters in 2008.
6. Finally, under the leadership of Ralph Reed, one of the brains of the Christian Right, conservative evangelicals are putting in motion a campaign to mobilize a considerable extent, thanks to the strategy that allowed the microTargeting strategist Karl Rove to contribute decisively to the reelection yet theoretically complicated George W. Bush in 2004.
Less than two months of the election, the issue of mobilization arises in both camps. Surveys are currently favorable to the Democrats and the Republican candidate is not the most charismatic or the most skillful. However, among the possible causes of demobilization on the Democratic side and a more conservative jolt marked by hostility to Obama by the enthusiastic support for Romney, the American campaign in 2012 is far from over.
Do not forget, finally, win the presidential election is only half the battle: Democrats must also mobilize to increase their majority in the Senate and regain the House of Representatives, and hence the ability to pass laws. These elections, at least as important as the race to the White House, are unfairly under-publicized.
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