Debate Obama / Romney: "You're the strongest Mitt" / "No it is you Barack!"

Three days of debate, the U.S. presidential candidates are covered with compliments. A change in tone of the campaign strategically and provisional.

A three-day debate between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama, the Democrats and the Republicans are trying as hard as possible to lower expectations about their candidate and increase those of its rival. It goes something like, "You're the best Barack" / "No, you're Mitt" or, as summarized in this tweet exceeded the Politico reporter Ben White:

    "The idea put forward the debate:" I'm just happy if my guy does not vomit blood and not killed with an ax our rival. '"
This game, called the Motions Motions expectation game (the game on expectations of the debate), is a figure also forced the U.S. presidential campaign debates that themselves. In 2004, Matthew Dowd, one of the most senior officials of the George W. Bush campaign, went as far as saying that John Kerry was "the best debater since Cicero" ...
Part 2012 is played in seven episodes:

Episode 1: "Mitt has never been so close"
It all starts with a memo from Jim Messina, the campaign democrat who says September 20 after "weeks of intense preparations for the debate, including five false debates in just 48 hours," Mitt Romney is "fast, well established and ready to attack the President so punchy. "Episode 2: "Barack is very new and I am"
September 25, Mitt Romney leads the way compliments on Fox News saying:

    "The President is clearly a gifted and eloquent speaker, he will come out very well. Me, you know, I've never participated in a presidential debate like this, and it will be a new experience. "

Episode 3: "Barack is too busy saving the world and he talks too much"
The next day, a spokesman for the Democratic campaign says that the debate will be difficult for the applicant:

    "He had to balance the country with his role as president and managing world events. [...] There will be less time than we had planned to sharpen and reduce its tendency to give long answers and substantial. "

Episode 4: "Barack is the best communicators in the world"
Really, Mitt Romney knows nothing about the discussions! Beth Myers, Romney's campaign, says the 27 that Obama is "widely regarded as one of the most talented communicators policies in modern history," adding that it will be his eighth presidential debate and only the first of Mitt Romney and McCain reminding Obama had dominated in 2008.
At this stage, notes Alexander Burns of Politico, "If two candidates are able to tie their shoelaces and walk all alone until the big podiums, Myers and Messina will be surprised."

Episode 5: "Anyway, it's challengers win the debate"
But the Obama campaign is not going to let it be, and Friday 28, David Axelrod memo sends his own, where he says:

    "Already, we expect a Mitt Romney prepared, disciplined and offensive, as it was during the primaries. [...] Then, debates, and particularly the first debate, are generally favorable to challengers. Five of the last six challengers were seen as winners of their first debate against an incumbent president. "
Episode 6: "Mitt was really bad" (Paul Ryan) vs. "You kidding, Mitt will tear everything" (Chris Christie and John McCain)
The Republican candidate has seen his downright vice president come to its rescue, September 30, when Paul Ryan summarized the arguments against his party's candidate on Fox News:

    "Listen, Obama is a gifted orator. It is on the national scene for years, he has experience in the debates, he has already done this kind of debate. This is the first time Mitt on stage of this magnitude. "
The same Sunday, three days hence the debate, different story for Republicans: The New Jersey Governor Chris Christie said on another channel that the debate would be the beginning of a new era for the country, and that, Basically, Mitt will surprise us all. John McCain, after noting that the two candidates were "excellent," says Mitt him a "more recent experience" debate.

Episode 7: "I, Barack, good in debate? Not at all! "
Also Sunday, Barack Obama, in a rare burst of modesty, it remains on the same arguments aired last week by his campaign at a rally in Las Vegas:


    "Governor Romney is a good debate. I'm doing right "
 Finally, both parties agree on one same language element: in any case, the debate is not that important. The New York Times notes as Beth Myers wrote in his memo that "the election will not be decided by debates" but by "the American people" and that David Axelrod "in this debate, Americans will not be count balance that currently most of spades or the fastest out a short sentence. " Paul Ryan also stated that "a single event will not make or break the campaign."

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The singer of "Groove is in the Heart" (Deee Lite) returns with a pro-Obama clip

Monday is dull, it's gray, it's five days before the long weekend. But do not despair, for the U.S. presidential campaign is here to cheer you up, and colors!

If you're not a fan of the 1990s, the name of Deee-Lite tells you maybe nothing. The tube of this group, however, you inevitably heard at a party:

Twenty-two years later, the group is (almost) always alive and back with a 40 second clip psychedelic pro-Obama. Dressed like a dancer on acid Lido, singer Lady Kier are launching a "Vote baby vote" and "Are you registered baby" before chanting Obama's name:

 
The video is actually a remix of Vote baby vote, a song by Lady Kier and Deee-Lite released in 1992, during the presidential campaign that pitted Bill Clinton to George Bush Senior:

Bill Clinton won the election, Deee-Lite will he chance Obama?

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Why Barack Obama is not yet elected

Winner given by the polls, the outgoing president must face particular concerns about the mobilization of voters in favor of black, Latino or Catholic Strategy "microTargeting" of the Christian right.

Lauric Henneton is a lecturer at the University of Versailles-Saint-Quentin and recently published by Flammarion one religious history of the United States.

Mitt Romney may be the worst candidate of a major party in the long presidency of the United States: any of its predecessors, the Democratic side as a Republican, had had a bad public image for at least quarter of a century, according to a survey by the Pew Research Center.
Despite some efforts, it fails to impose a narrative that would make it humanly endearing it is considered remote, detached from reality (especially financial) means the American voter, and Mormonism is suspect in the eyes of portion of evangelical Protestants, though generally favorable to the "GOP".
To these are added handicaps already many turnovers (on abortion), concealments embarrassed (the health system he helped implement in Massachusetts), and gaffs, as the remarks made public recently about the now famous 47% of Americans consider it assisted and therefore lost to the cause of his party.
The consequence of this bundle of factors that Barack Obama is well positioned in a number of recent surveys carried out in "key states" (battleground states), where the election of November 6 will play: Florida and Ohio, decisive in 2000 and 2004, but also Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Virginia and North Carolina.
This series of polls favor Obama and the accumulation of blunders Republican side suggests that dynamic is starting to re-election of the incumbent president smoothly. National polls, however, remain tight, which may seem surprising, but does not mean much in an election that is not played at the national level, as in France.
Despite this favorable context, however, the Obama campaign team is facing six concerns.
1. Premature failure triumphalism, believing that the election is played, which would result in a double-release effort activists at the local level and a lower mobilization of American voters abstained easily. It is clear that the unprecedented mobilization of 2008 will not be matched, but beware demobilization too broad.
2. In 2008, the mobilization was particularly noticeable in the black electorate. Serious concerns hover for some time after the announcement by Obama to support gay marriage, criticized especially in black churches, who have called on their followers to abstain. Support for President large black evangelical figures like Al Sharpton, announced at a press conference on September 21, he will limit demobilization of black voters also believing that practicing?
3. The same problem arises with the Catholics, who, with a quarter of the electorate, are crucial. In addition to gay marriage, they are generally opposed to abortion, defended by Democrats (even if there is a pro-life Democrat minority).
Catholics for whom the ideal of social justice is more important than the right to look for abortion Democrats, who at the Charlotte Convention in early September, sent some strong signals to the electorate, despite the controversy - widely publicized, the reintroduction of God and Jerusalem in the program booed lay activists. Beyond Catholic voters, the Democratic Party is trying to shed its traditional image of hostility to religion, which is not unique to him attract independent voters still undecided.
4. Latinos, minority growth, traditionally Democrats even though their social conservatism sometimes pushes them to vote Republican, are the other major election issue. The real question this year is whether they will be able to vote at all, since a number of laws or provisions, not devoid of ulterior motives partisan, designed to remove the electoral lists or prevent them from there Register (required to present a valid photo ID, still rare in the United States, especially among minorities).
Latinos, and to a lesser extent black people could not vote on November 6 will be much less vote for the Democrats, especially in the key states of Nevada and Florida Hispanics, North Carolina and Virginia for blacks.
5. The teachers' strike in Chicago, which ended Sept. 19, is symptomatic of the limitations of the balance sheet of Barack Obama, the unions is a historic pillar of the Democratic Party. The reform of the health system, past the pain, was questioned at the state level.
Despite the spectacular death of Osama bin Laden, the situation in the Middle East is far from being peaceful and kindling recent Arab-Muslim world shows that despite the Cairo speech, anti-Americanism remains. The 112th Congress (2010-2012) will probably hold the sad record of less productive since 1947, mainly because of the fierce opposition of House of Representatives Republican majority since the crushing defeat of the Democrats in midterm elections in 2010. The disappointment of some could therefore add other triumphalism, mentioned above, as part of demobilization of voters in 2008.
6. Finally, under the leadership of Ralph Reed, one of the brains of the Christian Right, conservative evangelicals are putting in motion a campaign to mobilize a considerable extent, thanks to the strategy that allowed the microTargeting strategist Karl Rove to contribute decisively to the reelection yet theoretically complicated George W. Bush in 2004.
Less than two months of the election, the issue of mobilization arises in both camps. Surveys are currently favorable to the Democrats and the Republican candidate is not the most charismatic or the most skillful. However, among the possible causes of demobilization on the Democratic side and a more conservative jolt marked by hostility to Obama by the enthusiastic support for Romney, the American campaign in 2012 is far from over.
Do not forget, finally, win the presidential election is only half the battle: Democrats must also mobilize to increase their majority in the Senate and regain the House of Representatives, and hence the ability to pass laws. These elections, at least as important as the race to the White House, are unfairly under-publicized.

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Coventry Health Aetna buys the Wall Street Journal

(Reuters) - The U.S. insurer Aetna has signed an agreement to buy rival Coventry Health Care Inc. for $ 5.7 billion (4.6 billion euros) in shares and cash, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Aetna will pay 42.08 dollars per share Coventry, which represents a premium of 20.4% over the closing price on Friday, said the financial daily said, citing sources familiar with the matter.

If the transaction is confirmed, it will be the latest example acquisition in the healthcare industry in the United States, a sector undergoing consolidation. Sector companies seeking to expand their business to take advantage of institutional reform of the U.S. health care system.

Earlier this year, the Supreme Court of the United States upheld the law on the health system promised by Barack Obama, which aims to extend health coverage to more than 30 million uninsured Americans.

The acquisition of Aetna Coventry must help to go from 23% to 30% share of sales achieved in public health activities, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Aetna hopes that the acquisition will contribute positively to the tune of 45 cents per share in 2014 and its results up to 90 cents per share in 2015, writes the daily.

Aetna and Coventry were not available for comment.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the boards of Aetna and Coventry have approved the agreement, which must be formalized Monday.

In July, the health insurer WellPoint had said he wanted to buy Amerigroup Corp for 4.46 billion dollars.

Last October, it was atoned Cigna Corp., which HealthSpring for $ 3.8 billion.

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The benefit of AIG $ 1.84 billion in Q2

NEW YORK (Reuters) - American International Group (AIG) on Thursday posted a profit for the second quarter, thanks to its stake in Asian insurer AIA which helped offset a decline in the operating profit of the heart of activity.

After losing over 6% during a session catastrophic for Wall Street, the title took 3% in after-hours trading before finally changing around the balance.

Supported by a bailout of 182 billion dollars (129 billion euros) during the financial crisis by the U.S. Treasury, which still holds three-quarters of the group's titles, AIG has forgotten a net profit of 1.84 billion dollars, or one dollar per share, after a loss of $ 2.66 billion, or 19.57 dollars per share a year earlier.

Operating profit amounted to 69 cents against 92 cents expected by the consensus Thomson Reuters I / B / E / S.

AIG earned $ 1.52 billion in fair value (fair value) through its participation in the Asian insurer AIA.

The U.S. insurer wished to keep its stake in AIA, which requires the group to dispose of certain assets.

AIG has retained 33% of its subsidiary AIA when lifted last year 17.9 billion dollars (12.8 billion euros) with an IPO in Hong Kong.

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Morgan Stanley will eliminate 1,600 jobs

(Reuters) - Morgan Stanley announced Thursday the elimination of 1,600 jobs in the first quarter of 2012 to reduce costs in a difficult situation, a move that boosts the capacity to Wall Street.

This downsizing will affect all hierarchical levels and all geographic areas, said spokesman Mark Lake.

Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup have already announced their plans to cut thousands of jobs by the end of the year.

Morgan Stanley had limited layoffs to hundreds of under performing financial advisers this year, but now extends the cuts to the bank and trading.

The new job cuts represent less than 2% of the bank's September 30.

According to analysts, Morgan Stanley will publish a loss in the fourth quarter due to a special charge of $ 1.2 billion announced by the bank this week and linked to an amicable agreement with the mono line MBIA.

Even without this charge, the bank should have posted a quarterly profit of only 15 cents per share, predicts Richard Staite, an analyst at Atlantic Equities. At the same time last year, MS had a profit of 41 cents per share.

To 3:50 p.m. GMT, the action progressed Morgan Stanley 0.79%, outperforming the S & P financials (0.39%)

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Wall Street: Caterpillar lowered its earnings estimates for 2015

Challenges decrypts the meeting of the day on Wall Street. Indexes fell Tuesday, dragged down by the construction industry and that of following the announcement of Caterpillar lowering its earnings estimates for 2015.

Dow futures were up between 2am and 4am, oriented downward thereafter. After reaching 13,553 points to noon futures began to rebound. Indices, them gained ground in early trading. But after peaking at 13 620 points to 17h, the benchmark index of Wall Street began to decline, as well as other indices. The downturn has intensified during the last two hours of trading. In the end, the Dow ended down 101.37 points or 0.75% to 13 457.55 points. Among the biggest gainers in the index include Home Depot (0.56%), Pfizer (0.36%) and Johnson & Johson (0.46%). The biggest losers were Caterpillar (-4.25%), Hewlett-Packard (-2.91%) and Alcoa (-2.43%).
The S & P500 has yielded 15.30 points or 1.05% to 1 441.59 points. The Nasdaq fell 43.05 points or 1.36% to 3 117.73 points. The Russell 2000 dropped 1.42%.
Despite an increase in housing prices in the United States emerged above expectations and a strong improvement in U.S. consumer confidence, investors were not enthusiastic. Indeed, the downward revision of forecast profits by Caterpillar in 2015 weighed heavily on the market, particularly on the construction sector, the industry and the automobile were the biggest losers of the day . In addition, on Tuesday the President of the Philadelphia Fed, Charles Plosser (non-voting member of the FOMC) stated that QE3 will boost probably do not labor market and, more generally, growth in the United States. "To say that such action will have a substantial impact on the labor market and the speed of the recovery is likely to undermine the credibility of the Fed." This comment was certainly not encouraged operators. Thus, the downward pressure on Tuesday materialized after several sessions of hesitation.
The macroeconomic news
Housing prices in the U.S. rose in July for the sixth consecutive month, according to Case-Shiller survey released by Standard and Poor's. Housing prices for sale in the twenty largest cities in the country rose by 0.4% compared to the previous month, seasonally adjusted data. In June, they rose by 0.9% according to a new survey estimate, revised down by 0.1% compared to the published end of August. YoY, the S & P Case-Shiller index rose 1.2% in July, while analysts expected an increase of 0.8%.
The U.S. consumer confidence surged in September to a high of seven months, according to the monthly survey from the Conference Board. The index stood at 70.3 points this month, against 61.3 points in August (revised from 60.6 points), while analysts expected 63.0 points. The expectations index as well as the sentiment vis-à-vis the current situation progressed. Consumers express greater confidence in the labor market, with a decline in the index measuring the perceived difficulty in finding employment and improving the measuring perceived level of available jobs.
The confidence index measured by institutional investors State Street emerged declined to 86.9 points in September 2012, against 91 points for the month of August. The risk appetite of institutional is calmed, particularly in North America where the sub-index stood at 81.1 Regional points (-3.2 points). The Asian index has declined for his 5.6 points, to 87.6. Finally, the European index jumped 4 points to 105 points.
The real estate price index from the Federal Housing Finance Agency rose 0.2% in July from the previous month. However, the rise of June originally estimated at 0.7% was revised down to 0.6%. YoY, prices are up 3.7%.
The manufacturing index of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond emerged up against all expectations last month. This index is determined by data seasonally adjusted at 4 points, -9 points compared with the previous month and the consensus of -6 points.
Companies under the microscope
DR Horton (-1.36%), Lennar (-1.84%) and Toll Brothers (-1.77%) fell on Tuesday as Barclays downgraded its recommendation on three titles developers, not advising more of over-weighting in the portfolio. However, the British bank has raised its target price from $ 35 to $ 42 on Lennar and $ 36 to $ 41 on Toll Brothers.
Caterpillar (-4.25%) fell sharply on Tuesday as the group lowered its earnings estimates for 2015 due to the slowdown in the world. CAT now expects annual EPS in 2015 of between $ 12 and $ 18 against the previous range from $ 15 to $ 20. Recently other strategic companies like FedEx (-0.73%) and Norfolk Southern (-1.83%), have also lowered their earnings estimates for 2012 and 2013.
Tesla Motors plunged 9.78% as the electric car manufacturer has lowered its forecast of sales in the third quarter of 2012 due to delays in the production of its Model S sedan
Facebook (-2.45%) continued its descent today after falling 9% on Monday following an article in Barron's in which an influential newspaper analysts estimated that the title of the social network is still over-estimated and it is only $ 15.
Advanced Micro Devices (-5.2%) was largely in the red on Tuesday, reaching its lowest level in a year as FBR Capital lowered its price target on the title of $ 7.50 to $ 6. Other specialists chips, such as Texas Instruments (-2.96%) and Micron (-2.4%) also lost ground.
Research In Motion soared 4.68% today as the CEO of the Canadian group, Thorsten Heins said that the number of BlackBerry users has increased by 2 million in the last quarter, bringing to 80 millions around the world.
Staples (-4.45%) was in negative territory today as the American equivalent of Office Depot, announced that it accelerated the closure of some of its stores in Europe and the United States.
Walgreen rose 1.09% as an analyst at Goldman Sachs initiated monitoring as a recommendation to buy.
Barnes & Noble declined by 3.69% while the chain of bookstores in the United States has announced the launch of streaming and download videos for its Nook reading lights this fall.
Akamai Technologies jumped 0.25% as Cowen reiterated his view on the title, being over-performing.

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